SOME PROJECTS ARE SUCCEEDING DESPITE DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITIONS
July 2025
Over the last year, new construction condo absorption across major urban markets has been markedly slow. The chart below depicts average monthly new condo absorption per project between May 2024 and May 2025 in three key cities: San Francisco, New York City, and Los Angeles.
As shown above, all three have averaged less than 1 unit per project per month. Over the entire year, absorption in San Francisco has averaged 0.7 units/month, followed by New York and Los Angeles at about 0.5 units/month. This is markedly slower than a decade ago when these three areas were consistently seeing absorption rates between 2-4 units per project per month, on average.
Despite sluggish absorption, some projects have outpaced their city average. Factors that contribute to this include being newly launched (and therefore able to capture pent-up demand without any of the hurdles that come with lagging on the market), competitive pricing, buzzy marketing, and locational advantages (neighborhood-centric areas or those without much competition for new construction).
The three tables below provide snapshots of key projects in each city that have outpaced average absorption over the last year.
The fastest selling project in San Francisco is Norvoir, a 35-unit boutique building in the Russian Hill neighborhood. Absorption rates here are boosted by the project’s recent launch in April 2025 as well as the appeal of Russian Hill which is both neighborhood-centric and also supply-constrained in terms of new condo construction.
In New York City, the top selling project is 520 Fifth Ave with over 6 units sold per month, on average. Launched last spring and slated for completion in 2026, 520 Fifth Ave will be the tallest residential building on Manhattan’s iconic 5th Ave. Entry prices are relatively competitive for Manhattan, under $2M, and the building offers a wide range of amenities including plans for a private members club.
In Los Angeles, Encore and Regency 321 top the list. Both launched last spring and benefit from being relatively new. Encore’s appeal includes its Brentwood address and the fact that it’s both new and amenitized, something not typically found in the single-family home centric neighborhood. Brentwood has also been in high demand this year following the LA wildfires in January 2025. In the case of Regency 321, while Koreatown is an area known for dense new developments, the majority have been rental apartments. A condo offering combined with competitive pricing (starting under $1M) makes it advantageous for those looking to own in the neighborhood.
All information is from sources deemed reliable but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is subject to human errors, omissions, changes or withdrawals without notice.
